South Korean Political Crisis: Martial Lawand Impeachment 12/23

 

Next Steps

 

Yoon’s impeachment goes to South Korea’s Constitutional Court for a trial, which must be decided within 180 days. If the Court upholds the impeachment, as it did with President Park Geun-hye in 2017, Yoon will be ousted from office and elections must be held within 60 days. If the Court overturns the impeachment, as it did with President Roh Moo-hyun in 2004, Yoon will be reinstated and the next presidential election will be slated for its regularly scheduled date in March 2027. (By law, South Korean presidents serve one five-year term.) Park and Roh’s verdicts were returned within 63 days and 92 days, respectively. Separately, Yoon is under criminal investigation for insurrection, a charge that supersedes the president’s usual immunity from prosecution.

 

 

The timing of the Court’s verdict could be important because the presumed front-runner for an early election, the DP’s leader Lee Jae-myung, is facing multiple court proceedings in which guilty verdicts could render him ineligible for political office. Lee, who lost the 2022 presidential election to Yoon by 0.7% of the vote, is accused of corruption, violating election laws, and involvement in an illegal cash transfer to North Korea, among other charges. He is appealing a November 2024 election law conviction that bars him from running for office.

 

 

Geostrategic Implications 

A question facing U.S. policymakers and Congress is whether Yoon’s deployment of the Republic of
Korea (ROK, or South Korea) military to implement martial law, without notifying U.S. military commanders in Korea, poses concerns about the state of alliance coordination. Additionally, the fallout
from Yoon’s moves may have compromised the PPP government’s ability to engage in major foreign
policy initiatives. Under an interim president, Seoul may be at a disadvantage in advocating for its
positions if the next U.S. Administration pursues changes that would affect U.S.-ROK relations, including
on tariffs, the size of U.S. troop deployments to South Korea, policy toward semiconductors and other
technology sectors, and/or modifying or withdrawing from the U.S.-ROK burden-sharing agreement that
was finalized in November 2024.
Similarly, Yoon’s suspension and possible removal from office raises questions about the staying
power of a number of foreign policies he has pursued, including

• A relative hardline policy toward North Korea that treats North Korea as an existential
threat and emphasizes deterrence. In contrast, South Korean progressives tend to
emphasize engagement policies.

• Integrating South Korea into the U.S.-led network of alliances and partnerships in the
Indo-Pacific, with a goal of making South Korea a “global pivotal state,” including by
championing democratic values. Many South Korean progressives have criticized Yoon’s
policy.

• A greater willingness than prior ROK leaders to publicly criticize China’s actions. DP
Leader Lee has questioned this approach.

• Improving relations with Japan and expanding ROK-U.S.-Japan relations, which have
been centerpieces of Yoon’s foreign policy, an approach involving compromises on
historical issues with Japan that Lee has characterized as “shameful.”

IN12474.pdf

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